Risk/Reward - Mike Gesicki
From weeks 12 through 16 Mike Gesicki was the tight end 6 with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Currently, Gesicki is finding himself being drafted as the 14th tight off the board, in the top of the 11th round. If Gesicki repeats his run last season through a whole season, he could be the biggest steal of the draft. To start (although not an accurate stat) let’s prorate his stretch as the TE6 out to a full season. In a 16-game season on his 5-game pace, Gesicki would have been the TE2 overall in full PPR formats behind only Travis Kelce.
Risk: The risk in drafting Mike Gesicki in 2020 is Ryan Fitzmagic, the QB who has had a career of hot streaks, and if he falls out Gesicki is likely the first to lose the most value. Another risk that comes with Gesicki, a potential rookie QB. In 2015, a study was done by TJ Hernandez with 4For4.com, breaking down if rookie quarterbacks actually targeted tight ends more often (see article here). His study finds that there is no concreate evidence to this, and tight ends with a rookie QB will still average less targets than the average tight end. Finally, offensive coordinator Chan Gailey does not have a history of good offenses. In 14 years as an offensive coordinator or head coach he has only had a top 15 scoring offense 50% of the time, with his less successful being in the more recent years of the NFL.
Reward: Brian Flores is a young head coach who has learned from Bill Belichick, and knows to build off of his team's strengths. Gesicki is by far one of the better talents on the team along with Devante Parker and Preston Williams. When looking back on Miami’s stretch at the end of 2019, the staff should see that he is to be used. For an 11th round pick you are buying a tight end who received a minimum of 6 targets a game from weeks 9 to 16, and was 7th in total targets amongst his position on the season.
Conclusion: Though the risk outweighs the reward for Gesicki. Despite this his current ADP makes him a fantastic flyer in 2020 off his talent alone. Truthfully, he is one of the better late round tight ends with a ceiling of a 'set it and forget' type player.