Not All Value, Is Good Value
Players are referred to as a value if they are a starter/number one on their team with low ADP. Players are referred to as the ‘best value’ on their team if they have low ADP with high upside. Not all value is good value though and today we will discuss what constitutes being bad value looking back at last season to build off this later in the off-season.
In 2018 Isaiah Crowell was the starting running back for the New York Jets for the first half of the season. Being a seventh-round selection, he was considered a ‘value’ pick. In 13 games with the Jets though he only had three RB1 performances, one RB2 performance, and a high end RB3 performance (11.7 Points). When you look for a running back at a value, you need to look for players on high scoring offenses. The Jets started rookie quarterback immediately crippling Crowell’s ceiling.
With RBBC (running back by committee), we try to find the most valuable member of an RBBC. For example, Corey Clement was considered the best value from a three-way committee with Jay Ajayi (front runner) and Darren Sproles (eventually injured and Wendall Smallwood took over his role). Despite injuries to Jay Ajayi and Sproles the Eagles continued to fill running backs into the committee with Corey Clement being worth nothing and he was not a usable asset. Even being an eleventh-round pick, you still lose value. From rounds nine to twelve is typically where you can find the best plug and play quarterbacks to start your season.
Kelvin Benjamin was the number one receiver on an NFL team with nothing else besides Zay Jones and Charles Clay. Why wouldn’t you draft him in the tenth round? He wasn’t going to be apart of a high scoring offense, nor have a good quarterback situation (Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen). Forward thinking would have told you this was a recipe for disaster. Drafting someone like Cooper Kupp in 2018 received good pay off until his injury. Although the Rams may not have been projected to be as high powered of an offense as they were, it was still a good investment because it was going to be a good one regardless.
Just because Matt Brieda might be involved in a three-way RBBC with Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman will not make him a good tenth round pick, or the 'best value' among the committee. You will never be able to start him confidently. Drafting Rex Burkhead doesn’t give you any value because when could confidently start the third running back in the Patriots committee? Devonta Freeman, he’s currently in the fourth round which could be seen as exceptional value for what he has been in the past, but if he is not used because his new OC doesn’t run the ball, you wasted a fourth round pick on a player who won’t do any good for you or your team. Not all value is good value, bad offenses don’t always produce good value, high scoring offenses have more value to offer.