Moore and Samuel, Post Bridgewater Signing
Teddy Bridgewater is the QB of the future in Carolina, for the next three years at least. Although I’m surprised the Saints didn’t want to keep him for the future, they certainly couldn’t afford the price tag. The biggest question moving forward though is how does this impact DJ Moore, and Curtis Samuel.
DJ Moore was an animal in 2019 finishing 14th in Fantasy Points per Game, and with an overall finish of the WR12 in PPR formats. Moore had 3 games under 10 PPR points, which can be seen as outliers (especially week 16 with Will Grier at QB). If you strip these games out, he goes from averaging 15.4 PPR points to 17.6. This is the difference between WR12 and WR5 in average points per game. DJ Moore’s AYPT (average yards per target) was 8.2
Curtis Samuel is not as comparable to what DJ Moore was, in fact his truthers (myself included) were often not rewarded by him. He’s what could be seen as a hit or miss player, which was quite unfortunate. Samuel only had 6 games inside the top 24 wide receivers and was 48th in Fantasy Points per Game, and finished as the WR34 in full PPR formats. Samuel’s AYPT was 5.2.
I’ve seen rumblings in the fantasy community about Bridgewater’s average depth of target being only 6.1 and how this might not be the best for Samuel and Moore, as it was the lowest in the NFL in 2019. Kyle Allen was more middle of the road at 8.3. However, Kyle Allen in 12 games Kyle Allen only threw 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, making his TD to INT ratio almost one for one. Unfortunately, Bridgewater only started 5 games, but if you stretch his 5-game pace out to a full season Bridgewater was on his way to 29 TDs and 7 INTs.
I think both players will be fine in 2020. The Panthers’ have not added a Brett Farve type, but they have added a competent QB who should be able to get the ball to them, and we should see a massive uptake in touchdowns. Moore is currently being drafted at the 2.06, and Samuel at the 9.06. Samuel seems borderline free to me at this draft price and is certainly the ‘better value’ but DJ Moore is a player who can have a Hopkins or Adams like year, and if he were too, he would be the best value at the start of the second round.