Best Value in 2019 Fantasy Drafts?
It’s way to early to be talking about 2019 Fantasy Drafts, you will accuse me of being a homer, but Tom Brady’s ADP might be the best value in 2019 Fantasy Drafts if it stays where it is at.
According to Fantasy Football Calculator: Tom Brady is being drafted as the tenth quarterback off the board, in the ELEVENTH round. I understand why, fantasy players are angry. They spent high capital on him this year and he wasn’t good at all. He finished as the QB14, a high end QB2 who didn’t win you weeks, but didn’t lose them for you either. Finishing with only 4 performances as a QB1, and most of those came in weeks where the highest scoring quarterback for fantasy was no more than 25 points. Tom Brady was no good for the draft price you paid, and we cannot argue that.
A lot went wrong for New England this season, their left tackle left in free agency, their replacement blew out his achilles in the preseason, their replacement for him was converted from right tackle, Gronk was not himself, Edelman was suspended for 4 games, Josh Gordon came, and Josh Gordon went. Tom Brady has, and always will be a trust-oriented player. If he does not trust who is protecting him, or who he throws to, he does not play well. We watched the Patriots create one of the most potent run games in the NFL, which we’ve seen.
We’ve seen this story before: a team with an old HOF quarterback, pounds the run game down opposing team’s throats and the quarterback finishes as a high end QB2. Let’s look at the 2017 Saints. Once the twin headed monster of Kamara and Ingram rose, we saw Brees’ take regression. Throwing 23 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. This year from Brady we received 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The Patriots run game? It totaled 15 rushing touchdowns between White, Michel and Devlin. The Saints run game in 2017 totaled 12 between Ingram and Kamara. However, this season Drew Brees came back to be exactly who we knew he was, throwing for 32 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions. Brees may not have been what you wanted in the fantasy playoffs, but he got you there with a positive regression to the passing game in New Orleans. I expect the same out of New England in 2019.
If you watched the Divisional Round against the Chargers, you saw Tom Brady look like himself again, he finished the game 34/44, 343 and 1 TD, averaging 7.8 Y/A (yards per attempt). 1 TD can be worrisome, but the 4 rushing touchdowns came on 1st and 2nd down right at the goal line. Would anyone be surprised if Brady throws 36+ touchdowns to around 7 interceptions next year? Tom Brady is who we know he is, and even if he moves from the eleventh round to the tenth or ninth round in 2019 Fantasy drafts, he will be worth the draft capital and I am confident he will be a QB1 for fantasy owners in 2019.